By Pauline Lipkewich, Contributing Editor — Chief Transformation Officer, KingdomBuilding Leadership, Inc.
Originally published in Railway Age, February 2026 — Leading Through Uncertainty, Part 4 of 4 (Series Conclusion).
Hope is not a strategy. Here is what is.
The numbers don't lie.
- 54% of workers say job insecurity significantly impacts their stress
- 44% say changes happen at work with little to no warning
- 40% expect the job market to worsen in 2026
According to the American Psychological Association's 2025 Work in America survey, more than half of workers say job insecurity is significantly impacting their stress levels, and nearly half report facing major changes with little to no warning. Manufacturing activity has contracted for ten consecutive months, tariff uncertainty continues to reshape supply chains, and freight volumes remain volatile.
For our industry specifically, the challenges cut deeper. Financial Editor David Nahass observed that the industrial economy is bearing the brunt of a kind of weakness creating great uncertainty about 2026 and its prospects. In a recent survey of rail contractors, workforce availability emerged as a top concern heading into the year — a labor shortage that can negatively impact project timelines, profitability, and safety performance.
These are our realities. And they are precisely why the leadership principles we've explored throughout this series matter more now than ever.
The Choice Before Every Rail Leader
The past three articles examined what distinguishes leaders who transform uncertainty into competitive advantage. We started with the four-stage cycle: Heighten Awareness, Increase Clarity, Build Alignment, and Drive Momentum. We explored the leadership styles that emerge under stress — the Hammer who gets short-term results while destroying long-term trust, and the People Pleaser who mistakes kindness for permissiveness. Recognizing we must lead ourselves before leading others, Article 3 reviewed the Trinity of Excellence: self-awareness, self-control, and self-respect.
The Series at a Glance — Leading Through Uncertainty
- The Four-Stage Cycle: Heighten Awareness, Increase Clarity, Build Alignment, Drive Momentum
- Leadership Under Stress: Recognizing the Hammer and the People Pleaser — and choosing a better path
- The Trinity of Excellence: Know Yourself, Control Yourself, Respect Yourself
- The Road Ahead: Putting it all together when it matters most
We now have a choice. We can use these realities and predictions to justify fear, paralysis, and retreat — or we can recognize them for what they are:
The greatest opportunity for differentiation a career may ever present.
Why Uncertainty Creates Opportunity
When workers feel burned out, the leader who genuinely invests in their people's well-being becomes a magnet for the best performers fleeing toxic environments. When workforce availability is the industry's greatest concern, the organization that treats railroaders with dignity solves a problem technology alone cannot fix.
Class I leaders themselves acknowledge 2026 will bring limited volume growth and continued macroeconomic headwinds. CN's Tracy Robinson put it directly: we're not accepting the macro reality as our fate — we're just going to have to work harder to achieve our goals.
That's not optimism. It's fierce resolve — and the posture of leadership.
Putting It All Together
The synthesis is straightforward, even when implementation is not. Each element of the framework applies directly to what 2026 demands:
Heighten Awareness of what's really happening in your operation. The macro trends are industry-wide, but your track crews, signal maintainers, and yard workers see realities the boardroom misses. Ask them what they're seeing about the challenges ahead.
Increase Clarity by establishing decision anchors that work even during uncertainty. When your people encounter unexpected conditions, can they make quick decisions without waiting for you? If not, deliver clarity to build trust and drive performance.
Build Alignment around a higher purpose. Safety remains the central mission for our industry. But beyond safety — what other purpose-driven pursuit can galvanize your team so they flourish, even during uncertainty?
Drive Momentum by celebrating early wins while recognizing they reveal the next challenges. Success in one area gives you the credibility and organizational confidence to tackle what comes next.
And through each stage, lead yourself first. Know your triggers. Control your responses. Respect your capacity. A burned-out leader cannot solve a burnout crisis. A fearful leader cannot inspire confidence. A reactive leader cannot build strategic momentum.
The Final Word
Since hope is not a strategy, 2026 will reveal which rail leaders are prepared and proactive — and which are not.
The organizations that will thrive — attracting talent, maintaining safety standards, achieving results without destroying their people — will be led by those who master themselves first.
We cannot control the macro environment, eliminate tariff uncertainty, or instantly create skilled workers. But we can control how we respond. We can control whether we lead from fear or purpose, whether we build trust or destroy it.
Is your leadership a competitive advantage during uncertainty? Take the Rail Way™ leadership assessment to find out where you stand — and what to do next.
Leading Through Uncertainty — Full Series
- Part 1: How Leaders Navigate Uncertainty and Come Out Stronger
- Part 2: What’s Your Style?
- Part 3: Lead Yourself First
- Part 4: The Road Ahead (Series Conclusion)
About Pauline Lipkewich
Pauline Lipkewich is Contributing Editor for Railway Age and Chief Transformation Officer at KingdomBuilding Leadership, Inc. She has been railroading since 2011 and has worked with Class I operators including CN, KCS, and NS, focusing on safety performance and operational effectiveness improvements.
She runs a boutique firm committed to helping individuals and organizations go further, faster by leveraging behaviors and culture as a key competitive advantage. Her love of leadership, heavy industry, and unlocking the potential in people is the genesis in bringing The Rail Way™ to life.
